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Larry Stone: Shanahan Confounded
Larry Stone's Notebook December 22, 2004

A first glance at the Denver Broncos Tuesday revealed the league's only team that ranks top 10 in the four major categories.

Rushing offense: 6th (137.8 average per game)

Passing offense: 8th (246.7 average per game)

Rushing defense: 9th (101.4 average per game)

Passing defense: 10th (191.1 average per game)

Former Titans Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams showed me this analysis several years ago as a way to find the most solid teams in the league. His reasoning: a lot of teams can put enough resources into one side of the ball to be dominant there...

Washington's defense: 3rd against the run, 5th against the pass

Kansas City's offense: 4th running the ball, 4th passing the ball

... but when they do, they usually do so to the detriment of the other side of the ball.

Washington's offense: 17th running the ball, 29th passing

Kansas City's defense: 14th against the run, 32nd against the pass

Few teams, according to Williams, could make the right kind of personnel decisions to be solid in both.

The Denver Broncos have done so again in 2004. It's a consistent pattern for Mike Shanahan's unit. In 2003, the Broncos finished the season ranked second among the 32 NFL teams running the ball (just 22nd passing), seventh against the run and sixth against the pass.

In 2002, the Broncos were again top 10 in three of four categories.

Obviously, the Broncos are a solid football team. During that period, Denver has compiled a 27-19 record, finishing second in the AFC West every year.

To show for it, the Broncos have:

* No playoff wins
* A three-game losing skid right in the midst of the playoff run in each of the three years
* A lot of grumbling about Mike Shanahan's decisions
* The chance to become just the 10th team in the last 25 years with a combined offense-defense rank of 12 or lower to miss the playoffs.

Indeed, if the playoffs began today, the Broncos are out. This is a desperate team coming to Nashville Saturday night.

''What you've got to do is say, 'We've got to finish the season with 10 wins,''' Shanahan said. ''We're going to be playing in front of a big audience on national TV on Christmas Day. We'll see how we react.''

''Talk is cheap. Obviously we play Tennessee. We're going to have to win 10 games to have a chance to get in there, and we'll just leave it at that.''

So, if the analysis we did earlier holds true, what's the problem?

In 2004, it's simply that when the Broncos have been bad, they have been very bad.

Loss to Jacksonville: Scored just six points, a late fumble killed the chance to win.

Loss to Cincinnati: Allowed the Bengals 8.5 yards on just 12 completed passes, turned the ball over three times.

Loss to Atlanta: Three interceptions including two on back-to-back series.

Loss to Oakland: Allowed the Raiders to score 14 points in the final seven minutes. Three turnovers.

Loss to San Diego: Four interceptions.

Loss to Kansas City: Gave up 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown on the game's first play, three turnovers, 100 yards in penalties.

But beyond this year, is there a deeper problem? Some would argue that in the salary cap age, you need to be better than just solid to win championships. You need to be dynamic in one area of the game and better than average in the other. Don't spend all your money on offense to the total expense of defense (or vice-versa), but spend some money to keep playmakers on one-side and build your team around that.

Others would say that the overall rankings are oversold in the modern game -- and the points scored statistic is most telling. Indeed, the Colts rank #1 in scoring and the Eagles rank first in defensive points per game.

As for the Broncos, they can play with anyone on any day IF they don't make mistakes. That's probably the hallmark of a solid football team.