Larry Stone: The Difference Is The Schedule

Our Titans Radio Color Analyst Pat Ryan shared an interesting theory during Sunday's Jacksonville coverage. The NFL veteran said he believes the key to making a run in today's league is getting a good schedule.

It will be interesting to see if Pat is right. We have the Atlanta Falcons as one case study. Could St. Louis or Indianapolis provide a second? Next season will provide that answer.

The crux of Pat's argument centers on parity. In reality, little difference exists between any team in the NFL. The Philadelphia Eagles have won just four games, but they have beaten the Redskins and the Cowboys. The Browns ended their season with just two wins, but almost scored a third over one of the AFC's best Sunday, the Colts.

Titans General Manager Floyd Reese said earlier this year in one of our conversations most people believed the Broncos stood head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL.

'The truth,' Reese said. 'is they were two players better than everyone else (Elway and Davis).'

Consider, then, the three other conference championship participants from 1998. The Jets lost Testaverde. The Falcons lost Anderson. Only the Vikings haven't suffered a major injury. With free agency and the salary cap, few teams have the quality depth to sustain a major loss at a skill position.

Back to Pat's original point: with such relatively small differences between the talent levels of the 31 teams combined with the impact of limited depth, who you play becomes a major issue in defining your season. Let's pick on the Rams as an example.

St. Louis stands 13-2 going into the season's final week. That type of record shows a high level of accomplishment and should be saluted. However, take a look at the Rams' schedule. Obviously, the NFC West is down in '99, but as a 5th place finisher a year ago, the Rams have played a less difficult schedule in '99. That means games against the likes of the Bears, the Bengals, the Browns and the Giants. Going into the season, the Rams held the third lowest strength of schedule in the NFL. Today, not one of those teams has a winning record.

Still, the Rams did take care of business. Dick Vermeil's team has talent, but so does Dan Reeves' Falcons. The Rams stand 13-2; the Falcons 4-11. What's the difference? Confidence. Like the Falcons in 1998, St. Louis used their talent to get on a roll. Each win bred more confidence. They believed they could win and they did. The Falcons lost early, suffered a major injury, and hasn't been heard from since.

Speed ahead to September, 2000, when the Rams will begin defense of their NFC West title. Not only will they deal with the heightened expectations and scrutiny that come with such a position, they will face the likes of Washington, Tampa Bay, Seattle or Kansas City. A tougher schedule will mean a tougher road to return to the playoffs. Confidence could suffer.

Maybe next December, we can look at Pat's theory and add more evidence. I believe he's right. Now, the question becomes what fourth or fifth place finisher in 1999 will be the surprise team in 2000?

That's the subject of a future day. Let me hear your ideas on it.