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Larry Stone: Which Stats Say What?
Larry Stone's Notebook December 29, 2005

During the holiday weekend, my father asked a question that comes up often: ''what do you do all week before a game?''

Unlike most who ask the question, the tone of my dad's voice seemed to be along the lines of ''how much time do you waste each year.'' Those are the questions that only fathers ask.

In any case, one of the rituals of each Tuesday during the season involves going through the 60-plus pages of NFL statistics. Hidden within the incredible wealth of information provided by the NFL on all 32 of its teams lies the answer to one question: what statistic(s) determine wins and losses in the NFL?

Though not a math person growing up (and even less of a statistical wiz in college), I find this an incredibly interesting question. Can you find numbers that more often than not predict success on the football field?

Coaches, players, football observers, the media -- all have their favorite statistics. Here's a look at some of the most common and how well they are predicting success in 2005.

Points Given Up Per Game: Many believe this is the most important defensive statistic since this is what determines wins and losses.

Hard to argue with the top five (in order): Chicago, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Seattle. The bottom five include St. Louis, Houston, San Francisco, Tennessee, New Orleans.

Turnover Ratio: Teams that get more takeways should get easier scores -- especially if they protect the football on offense and don't give the opponent anything easy.

This season, the Bengals and Broncos lead the NFL with a +43 turnover ratio. Between them, they have 77 takeaways.

Sixteen teams own negative turnover ratios, among them, Dallas, Washington, New England and San Diego. Seven teams have double digit negative turnover marks -- and only of them, the Ravens, has won more than six games.

Rushing Yards Per Game -- Offense & Defense: Good teams come playoff time can run it and can stop the run. That's what they say.

In 2005, six teams rank in the top ten in each category, led by the Broncos with the league's second-ranked rushing attack and the fifth-ranked defense against the run. Only San Diego has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Eight teams, including the Titans, rank in the bottom ten in each category. Those teams have a combined win total of 34 games.

Touchdowns Inside The Redzone: It's hard to get inside the 20 so teams must take advantage of their trips and come away with seven points.

The top 11 teams in red zone touchdown percentage all have winning records. Only two teams in the bottom 12 (Miami and Minnesota) have a winning record.

Third Down Efficiency -- Offense & Defense: Good teams keep their own drives alive, while getting the opponent off the field when they have the chance.

Does not appear to be a very good predictor as only four teams rank in the top ten in each: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Dallas and Atlanta.

The Bears are next to last in offensive third down efficiency and second best on defense.

Sack Ratio: Good teams protect their quarterback and go after the opponent's signal caller. The best teams have the most positive ratio because their defensive sacks outweigh the number given up on offense.

The league's top two teams, Indianapolis and Seattle, have a +29 sack ratio. The league's bottom two teams, Houston and San Francisco, have a -51 sack ratio. Only one team, the Chiefs, has a winning record and a negative ratio.

Conclusion? It's hard to put one statistic on the table that firmly predicts NFL success. Rather, it's looking at teams across statistical categories that produces the best results. That's what makes the weekly look into the numbers so interesting.

And, for my father's benefit, it gives me something to do every Tuesday