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Mike Keith: Sometimes Stats Lie
The View From The Voice December 19, 2006

The stat of the day isn’t total yards: Jacksonville 396 Tennessee 98.

It’s Jacksonville 4 Tennessee 0. That’s turnovers.

Or it’s Tennessee 21 Jacksonville 0. That’s points off of turnovers.

Or it’s Tennessee 370 Jacksonville 100. That’s total return yards. The 370 return yards would be a Tennessee franchise record, by the way.

Take your pick.

Like everyone else who follows football, I often focus on yards. We all sometimes obsess over yards. We do this because yards are the easiest football statistic to get, to grasp and to follow.

But the data shows clearly that out-gaining your opponent is not the most important football statistic.

Since the Tennessee Titans became the Tennessee Titans in 1999, the club is 49-9 when it wins the turnover battle. That’s an 85% win percentage. Turnover Ratio is the second-best predictor of Titan wins.

The best indicator? During the last nine seasons, the Titans are 56-7 (89%) when they have the lead after three quarters---quite a compliment to Jeff Fisher teams and their ability to finish.

Total yards? Tennessee is 48-18 (73%) when it out-gains the opponent.

Total yardage is an important statistic, but not the nearly the most important statistic.

Here are some other stats that I like from the Jacksonville game…

The Titans were penalized four times for 40 yards. They did not have an accepted penalty in the last 37:32 of the game. For the year, the Titans continue to do well with penalties, averaging just 43 yards of flags per game.

The Titans had five quarterback sacks for -39 yards. Three of the Jags’ losses on sacks were 9, 12 and 11 yards, which all ended up being huge plays that killed Jacksonville drives. Another of the sacks was Keith Bulluck’s takedown of David Garrard on 4th and 5 at the Titans’ 35 yard line just before halftime. Another huge play by Bulluck. Did I mention that Keith Bulluck should go to the Pro Bowl?

Speaking of fourth-downs, Jacksonville was 0-2 on 4th down tries. One came on the aforementioned 4th and 5 at the Tennessee 35 play. The other came on 4th and goal at the Tennessee one, when Pacman Jones knocked a ball away from Matt Jones. Another huge play by P. Jones. Entering the game, Titans’ opponents had converted 8-12 tries on 4th down.

Play clean and make big plays on defense and you’ll win every time.

No matter the yardage totals.