A one-game margin separated the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos from the Chiefs the last time Kansas City failed to finish a season first in the AFC West.
That Peyton Manning-led outfit ruled the roost with 12 wins in the regular season, and then Kansas City began its current nine-year run as the best in the AFC West.
Having Andy Reid on the sideline and Patrick Mahomes at the controls of the offense might be a decided edge. But neither one of those things are expected to change any time soon.
Is there a team capable of shifting the pecking order in the division?
“They’ve been the bully on the block for a long time,” Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said ahead of Friday’s season opener against Kansas City in Brazil.
The Broncos were a surprise team in 2024, crashing the playoffs on the back of a playmaking defense and steady rookie quarterback Bo Nix. During training camp, head coach Sean Payton said he previously coached six teams he felt entering the season had a chance to win the Super Bowl.
“This is my seventh team that I think has that,” Payton said.
Las Vegas changed head coaches again, hiring Pete Carroll to turn the Raiders the right direction.
Here’s how we envision the West being settled in 2025:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5 predicted record)
Schedule
W1 Fri Sep 5 vs Los Angeles Chargers (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
W2 Sun Sep 14 vs Philadelphia Eagles
W3 Sun Sep 21 at New York Giants
W4 Sun Sep 28 vs Baltimore Ravens
W5 Mon Oct 6 at Jacksonville Jaguars
W6 Sun Oct 12 vs Detroit Lions
W7 Sun Oct 19 vs Las Vegas Raiders
W8 Mon Oct 27 vs Washington Commanders
W9 Sunday Nov 2 at Buffalo Bills
W10 Bye
W11 Sun Nov 16 at Denver Broncos
W12 Sun Nov 23 vs Indianapolis Colts
W13 Thu Nov 27 at Dallas Cowboys
W14 Sun Dec 7 vs Houston Texans
W15 Sun Dec 14 vs Los Angeles Chargers
W16 Sun Dec 21 at Tennessee Titans
W17 Thu Dec 25 vs Denver Broncos
W18 Sun Jan 4 at Las Vegas Raiders
Still the man in the middle: Defensive tackle Chris Jones was a rookie in 2016 when the Chiefs started their active run of dominance in the division. He had one of his best seasons to date in 2024 with a position-best win rate slightly below 20 percent. The Chiefs credited him with 29 forced incompletions, which was second best among defensive tackles last season.
Safety valve: Jaden Hicks inherited a lot of responsibility jumping into a starting role, and the strong safety earned the promotion with preparation according to Steve Spagnuolo. Hicks had three interceptions as a rookie last season to gradually earn more responsibility. The Chiefs are only planning to further expand his role in 2025.
2. Denver Broncos (10-7 predicted record)
Schedule
W1 Sun Sep 7 vs Tennessee Titans
W2 Sun Sep 14 at Indianapolis Colts
W3 Sun Sep 21 at Los Angeles Chargers
W4 Mon Sep 29 at Cincinnati Bengals
W5 Sun Oct 5 at Philadelphia Eagles
W6 Sun Oct 12 at New York Jets
W7 Sun Oct 19 vs New York Giants
W8 Mon Oct 26 vs Dallas Cowboys
W9 Sunday Nov 2 at Houston Texans
W10 Thu Nov 6 vs Las Vegas Raiders
W11 Sun Nov 16 vs Denver Broncos
W12 Sun Nov 23 Bye
W13 Sun Nov 30 at Washington Commanders
W14 Sun Dec 7 at Las Vegas Raiders
W15 Sun Dec 14 vs Green Bay Packers
W16 Sun Dec 21 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
W17 Thu Dec 25 at Kansas City Chiefs
W18 Sun Jan 4 vs Los Angeles Chargers
First in the secondary: Quarterbacks all but refuse to throw in the direction of All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II, which boosted the need for a second magnetic cover man. The Broncos drafted Texas defensive back Jahdae Barron in the first round and consider him a fit in multiple roles — cornerback, nickel corner and dime safety. If Barron meets expectations, opportunities to make plays should be plentiful.
Hand it here: Figuring out the No. 1 option in the Broncos’ backfield might take time. Payton assured his running backs he’ll find snaps for reliable options. Injuries have been the main detriment in J.K. Dobbins’ career, but he’s coming off of a strong season with the Chargers. Rookie RJ Harvey had a strong preseason and squarely is in the mix.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7 predicted record)
Schedule
W1 Fri Sep 5 vs Kansas City Chiefs
W2 Mon Sep 15 at Las Vegas Raiders
W3 Sun Sep 21 vs Denver Broncos
W4 Sun Sep 28 at New York Giants
W5 Sun Oct 5 vs Washington Commanders
W6 Sun Oct 12 at Miami Dolphins
W7 Sun Oct 19 vs Indianapolis Colts
W8 Thu Oct 23 vs Minnesota Vikings
W9 Sun Nov 2 at Tennessee Titans
W10 Sun Nov 9 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
W11 Sun Nov 16 at Jacksonville Jaguars
W12 Sun Nov 23 Bye
W13 Sun Nov 30 vs Las Vegas Raiders
W14 Mon Dec 8 vs Philadelphia Eagles
W15 Sun Dec 14 at Kansas City Chiefs
W16 Sun Dec 21 at Dallas Cowboys
W17 Sun Dec 28 vs Houston Texans
W18 Sun Jan 4 at Denver Broncos
No Joe: Joey Bosa was drafted third overall by the Chargers in 2016 and compiled 72 sacks for the Bolts. But he’s gone after injuries made him more of a question mark than impact pass rusher. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter plans a deeper rotation off the edge while featuring Khalil Mack. Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree are the primary options on the right side.
Running men: Harbaugh wants a hard-nosed team that can pound the ball on the ground in any situation. The Chargers used the No. 22 overall pick to select Omarion Hampton even after signing former Pittsburgh Steelers first-round pick Najee Harris to breathe new life into the ball-control vision. Hampton might begin the season in third-down role because of his accomplished work in pass protection, but Harbaugh also praised his vision, agility and explosiveness, framing a situation that could lead to the Chargers using Harris as the late-game hammer and goal-line runner.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (5-12 predicted record)
Schedule
W1 Sun Sep 7 at New England Patriots
W2 Mon Sep 15 vs Los Angeles Chargers
W3 Sun Sep 21 at Washington Commanders
W4 Sun Sep 28 vs Chicago Bears
W5 Sun Oct 5 at Indianapolis Colts
W6 Sun Oct 12 vs Tennessee Titans
W7 Sun Oct 19 at Kansas City Chiefs
W8 Bye
W9 Sun Nov 2 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
W10 Thu Nov 6 at Denver Broncos
W11 Mon Nov 17 vs Dallas Cowboys
W12 Sun Nov 23 vs Cleveland Browns
W13 Sun Nov 30 at Los Angeles Chargers
W14 Sun Dec 7 vs Denver Broncos
W15 Sun Dec 14 at Philadelphia Eagles
W16 Sun Dec 21 at Houston Texans
W17 Sun Dec 28 vs New York Giants
W18 Sun Jan 4 vs Kansas City Chiefs
Bring the “A” game: Ashton Jeanty was one of the five best running back prospects entering the league in the past decade based on the team evaluation, but Carroll repeated recently he will not “play one guy” as the position. Any time Jeanty spends off the field is sure to be short-lived. Carroll has built offenses around bell-cow backs before — Marshawn Lynch, anyone? — and Jeanty’s speed gives the Las Vegas offense a home-run threat it otherwise lacks. The Raiders averaged 3.6 yards per carry and had one gain over 39 yards in 2024. At Boise State, Jeanty had 50 rushing touchdowns, led the FBS with 159.7 scrimmage yards per game and was the only FBS player ever to post 1,000-plus rushing yards and 500-plus receiving yards in a season (2024).
Catching a steal: Dont’e Thornton can run, but he fell to the fourth round of the 2025 draft because NFL teams weren’t convinced the former Tennessee wideout would consistently catch. Thornton (6-5, 205) might have already outperformed his draft slot in the eyes of Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. He’ll be a starter — or receive starter reps — early in the season. If you missed him this summer, check out his 17-yard touchdown catch on a ball quarterback Geno Smith wouldn’t throw to a player he didn’t trust.